Risk of Unemployment Outlook

 

Risk of  Unemployment Outlook


 According to the chart of  Bloomberg following


In the first half of the year, the COVID-19 pandemic caused the most severe contraction in global and domestic economic activity in decades. 

Assuming that the widespread and simultaneous resurrection of infections on a global scale is avoided, the GDP of Australia’s major trading partners is expected to shrink by about 3% (on an annual average) in 2020, at a trough in the June quarter, followed by a growth of 6% by 2021 about. This will make the GDP levels of major trading partners about 3% lower than expected before the outbreak. The "State of the International Economy" chapter will discuss the global outlook in more detail.

Domestically, after the biggest growth shock since the 1930s, GDP in most of the country is gradually recovering. Employment and working hours in most parts of the country are also expected to increase slightly in the second half of the year. However, the impact of increased activity restrictions in Victoria is likely to offset the rebound in GDP growth in other economies in the September quarter. Victoria’s restrictions, as well as some unemployment due to the JobKeeper program, began to gradually shrink across the country after September. This will put pressure on the labor market results in the September and December quarters; this is likely to offset others. Local employment growth. Due to job losses in Victoria and increased labor participation in other parts of Australia, the unemployment rate is expected to continue to rise during this period. After a sharp decline in the June quarter, with the end of the free childcare program and rising fuel prices, inflation is expected to rebound in the second half of the year. However, due to slow wage growth and a large amount of idle production capacity in the economy, the inflation rate is expected to remain low during the forecast period.

source from
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2020/aug/economic-outlook.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/global-risk-briefing/



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